New Monte Carlo model for the space environment
ARCLab researchers present a new simulation method to predict how space debris evolves in low-Earth orbit that efficiently tracks space objects over long periods, even modeling collisions and explosions, allowing for more detailed predictions than before. The study highlights how future satellite launches, including the recent rise of megaconstellations, could impact space debris and emphasizes the importance of proper disposal to prevent long-term accumulation.
Authors: Daniel Jang, Davide Gusmini, Peng Mun Siew, Andrea D’Ambrosio, Simone Servadio, Pablo Machuca, and Richard Linares
Citation: Journal of Spacecraft and Rockets 0 0:0, 1-22
Abstract:
This paper introduces a novel Monte Carlo (MC) method to simulate the evolution of the low-Earth-orbit environment, enhancing the MIT Orbital Capacity Analysis Tool (MOCAT). In recent decades, numerous space environment models have been developed by government agencies and research groups to understand and predict the dynamics of space debris. Our MC approach advances this by simulating the trajectories of space objects and modeling their interactions, such as collisions and explosions. This aids in analyzing the trends of space-object and debris populations.
A key innovation of our method is the computational efficiency in orbit propagation, which is crucial for handling potentially large numbers of objects over centuries. We present validation results against the Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee study and explore various scenarios, including ones without future launches and those involving the launch of proposed megaconstellations with over 80,000 active payloads. With the improvement in computational efficiencies provided by this work, we can run these new scenarios that predict millions of trackable objects over a 200-year period. The previous state-of-the-art was 400,000 objects over the same period of time. Notably, while fewer megaconstellations are planned for altitudes above 800 km, even minimal failures in post mission disposal or CAMs can significantly impact orbital debris accumulation.
